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US TSYS: Modestly Firmer Ahead Of CPI

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries are modestly richer across the curve this morning after yesterday’s twist steepening, with US CPI set to headline the docket (MNI Preview here). Away from the regular calendar, today also sees a heavy schedule for bank earnings.
  • Cash yields are 1.5-2.7bp lower on the day, with declines led by 7s.
  • 2s10s sits at 41.6bp (-1.2bps), off yesterday’s 43.2bps that came within less than 0.5bp of recent highs.
  • TYH5 has lifted to 107-15+ (+04) but has remained within yesterday’s range throughout, on reasonable cumulative volumes for a pre-CPI overnight session of 285k.  
  • The trend structure remains bearish with support at 107-06 (Jan 13 low) whilst a softer CPI print could see greater attention on resistance at 108-17+ (20-day EMA).
  • Data: MBA mortgages (0700ET), CPI Dec (0830ET), Real av earnings Dec (0830ET), Empire mfg Jan (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (0920ET), Kashkari (1000ET), Williams (1100ET), Goolsbee (1200ET), Fed Beige Book (1400ET) – see STIR bullet.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W bill auction
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  • Treasuries are modestly richer across the curve this morning after yesterday’s twist steepening, with US CPI set to headline the docket (MNI Preview here). Away from the regular calendar, today also sees a heavy schedule for bank earnings.
  • Cash yields are 1.5-2.7bp lower on the day, with declines led by 7s.
  • 2s10s sits at 41.6bp (-1.2bps), off yesterday’s 43.2bps that came within less than 0.5bp of recent highs.
  • TYH5 has lifted to 107-15+ (+04) but has remained within yesterday’s range throughout, on reasonable cumulative volumes for a pre-CPI overnight session of 285k.  
  • The trend structure remains bearish with support at 107-06 (Jan 13 low) whilst a softer CPI print could see greater attention on resistance at 108-17+ (20-day EMA).
  • Data: MBA mortgages (0700ET), CPI Dec (0830ET), Real av earnings Dec (0830ET), Empire mfg Jan (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barkin (0920ET), Kashkari (1000ET), Williams (1100ET), Goolsbee (1200ET), Fed Beige Book (1400ET) – see STIR bullet.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W bill auction