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Monthly GDP Ahead At 0830ET

CANADA DATA
  • Monthly real GDP for July and the August advance lands at 0830ET.
  • Last month’s July advance estimate saw output “essentially unchanged” on the month whilst consensus looks for a 0.1% M/M increase. It follows the -0.2% M/M from June with July likely hindered by the port strike and forest fires.
  • Some sellside estimates for the August advance point to a potential improvement. CIBC pencil in 0.2% whilst RBC point to both employment and hours worked bouncing back albeit partly offset by housing markets cooling further.
  • Real GDP surprisingly declined -0.2% annualized in Q2 (BoC forecast 1.5%) and whilst the continued specific shocks make it harder to gauge an underlying trend, growth has likely underwhelmed through Q2 and Q3. With potential growth seen a little over 2% it should have further helped reduce an output gap that the BoC estimates peaked in 1H22.
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