Free Trial

Monthly GDP (Aug 2020) Preview - 0700BST 9/10/20

UK DATA
MNI (London)

GDP: BBG: +4.7% m/m, +8.2% 3m/3m; Prev(Jul): +6.6% m/m, -7.6% 3m/3m

IP: BBG: +2.6% m/m, -4.5% y/y; Prev (Jul): +5.2% m/m, -7.8% y/y

Services: +5.0% m/m, +7.0% 3m/3m; Prev (Jul): +6.1% m/m, -8.1% y/y

  • M/M GDP posted a third successive increase in Jul, rising by 6.6% after ticking up 8.7% in Jun and markets look for another uptick in Aug, although at a slower pace of 4.6%.
  • GDP plunged in Mar and Apr but started recovering from May onwards, however, the 3-mo avg still declined by 11.7% y/y.
  • The ONS noted that GDP is still 11.7% below the levels seen in Feb before the crisis.
  • All major sectors showed monthly growth rates in Jul, but all of them remained below pre-crisis levels.
  • The service sector grew 6.1% in Jul, driven by education, wholesale and accommodation and food services, while industrial production edged up 5.2%.
  • Forward looking survey evidence suggests further recovery of the UK economy:
  • Both the services and the mfg PMI recorded readings above the 50-mark in Aug and Sep, signalling marked growth in both sectors.
  • Moreover, the BRC retail sales monitor showed another uptick of sales in Aug.
  • However, with rising Covid-19 cases and a new series of social distancing measures, there is a danger to a sustained recovery.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3814 | irene.prihoda@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.