April 30, 2024 11:52 GMT
Monthly GDP Preview – 0830ET
CANADA DATA
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets Bank of Canada Market News
- GDP for Feb/Mar advance is released at 0830ET.
- Consensus looks for a 0.3% M/M increase in February, trimming the 0.4% indicated in last month’s advance, after a strong 0.6% increase in Jan.
- RBC meanwhile, who haven’t submitted in the Bloomberg survey, see meaningful downward risk with their estimate of 0.1% M/M.
- RBC write: “The surge in January output was in part tied to transitory factors that will not happen again. Half of the increase came from a rebound in the education sector following the end of large public sector strikes in Quebec. Early data is pointing to a large increase in oil production in Alberta in February, but a weather-related lift in utility output in January is expected to partially reverse.”
- Estimates for March advance
- CIBC: March may show a “slight pullback in activity, with manufacturing and retail sales appearing to struggle during that month and housing starts decelerating modestly.”
- RBC: “Our RBC Consumer Spending Tracker suggests real retail sales declined in March alongside a rise in the unemployment rate and tick lower in hours worked.”
- For context, a 0.3% increase in Feb before a flat Mar would still have seen real industry-based GDP growth accelerate to 3.2% annualized in Q1.
- With the usual caveats concerning differences to the quarterly expenditure data, the BoC earlier this month pushed its Q1 GDP forecast up to 2.8% (from 0.5%) before 1.5% in Q2.
- BoC-dated OIS shows around 13bp of cumulative cuts priced for the next meeting in June, with the first cut fully priced for July.
252 words