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Monthly GDP Preview – 0830ET

CANADA DATA
  • GDP for Feb/Mar advance is released at 0830ET.
  • Consensus looks for a 0.3% M/M increase in February, trimming the 0.4% indicated in last month’s advance, after a strong 0.6% increase in Jan.
  • RBC meanwhile, who haven’t submitted in the Bloomberg survey, see meaningful downward risk with their estimate of 0.1% M/M.
  • RBC write: “The surge in January output was in part tied to transitory factors that will not happen again. Half of the increase came from a rebound in the education sector following the end of large public sector strikes in Quebec. Early data is pointing to a large increase in oil production in Alberta in February, but a weather-related lift in utility output in January is expected to partially reverse.”
  • Estimates for March advance
  • CIBC: March may show a “slight pullback in activity, with manufacturing and retail sales appearing to struggle during that month and housing starts decelerating modestly.”
  • RBC: “Our RBC Consumer Spending Tracker suggests real retail sales declined in March alongside a rise in the unemployment rate and tick lower in hours worked.”
  • For context, a 0.3% increase in Feb before a flat Mar would still have seen real industry-based GDP growth accelerate to 3.2% annualized in Q1.
  • With the usual caveats concerning differences to the quarterly expenditure data, the BoC earlier this month pushed its Q1 GDP forecast up to 2.8% (from 0.5%) before 1.5% in Q2.
  • BoC-dated OIS shows around 13bp of cumulative cuts priced for the next meeting in June, with the first cut fully priced for July.
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