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Moody's Upgraded BP to A1[S]; Spreads Muted

ENERGY SECTOR


New Profile: A1[S]/A-[P]/A+[S]

  • Spreads largely unchanged on the move, up to 2bps wider since Monday’s close.
  • Upgrade comes on the back of a post-pandemic debt reduction and is supported by moderate dividends and disciplined investment despite high levels of buybacks.
  • BP's retained cash flow to net debt ratio expected to remain above 30%; stood at 56% in 2023 and projected around 40% for 2024 assuming a $70 oil price.
  • Moody’s expect debt levels to fluctuate slightly with oil and gas price changes though levels should remain below prior peaks and buyback/investment adjustments are expected to maintain credit metrics if conditions change materially.
  • Moody’s view an upgrade as unlikely given BP’s weaker upstream profile compared to larger companies though see upward pressure on increased resilience to the energy transition with RCF to Net Debt upgrade/downgrade thresholds given at 45% and 30% respectively.
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