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(M2) Correction Extends


Late Session Rebound


(M2) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play


(M2) Gains Still Considered Corrective

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RATINGS: Moody's US Liquidity-Stress Indicator is "just above all-time low in
Sept" as it "fell sharply last month and now sits just above its all-time low of
2.8%" of April 2013. Moody's SGL Monitor Flash said "LSI dropped to 3.0% in
September from 3.4% in August, with liquidity conditions remaining fundamentally
supportive for speculative-grade companies."
- Moody's LSI falls when corporate liquidity appears to improve, rises when it
appears  weak.
- LSI's drop "reflects speculative-grade borrowers' good cash flow performance"
& "favorable financing conditions, including for companies in the rebounding
commodity sectors," said Sr VP John Puchalla. "Upgrades of Moody's
speculative-grade liquidity rtgs outnumbered downgrades by 11 to 2 in Sep.
Liquidity gains in commodity-related sectors this yr continued in Sep with SGL
rtg upgrade of 5 energy, mining and chemical cos."
- "LSI has now fallen almost every month" since 103.% Mar 2016 recent peak w/
"decrease signaling a low speculative-grade default rate ahead. Moody's projects
1yr US spec-grade default rate will fall to 2.7% in Aug.2018" vs. 3.3% today.

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