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More Data Suggests RFK Independent Bid Would Benefit Trump

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A new survey from I&I-TIPP has found that President Biden leads former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 head-to-head matchup, but the race becomes a dead-heat when third-party candidates are includes on the ballot.

  • TIPP: “If no other candidates appear on the ballot, the results show Biden 43%, Trump 40%. With the margin of error, it’s basically a dead heat. Significantly, however, 9% responded “other,” while 9% answered “not sure,” for 18% of the total vote.”
  • When three major third-party and independent challengers - Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., former Harvard University professor Cornell R. West, and Green Party standard-bearer Jill Stein, are included, “Biden and Trump are dead even at 38% each, with Kennedy taking 11%, West 2%, and Stein 1%. “Other” in this case falls to just 2%, while “not sure” remains at 9%.”
  • TIPP concludes: “Data suggest, once again, that Biden is hurt more than Trump by the presence of the non-major-party challengers, but especially Kennedy. Biden loses five percentage points of the vote, versus just two percentage points for Trump, with Kennedy in the race.”

Figure 1: 2024 Voting Intentions with Third-Party Candidates on Ballot

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A new survey from I&I-TIPP has found that President Biden leads former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 head-to-head matchup, but the race becomes a dead-heat when third-party candidates are includes on the ballot.

  • TIPP: “If no other candidates appear on the ballot, the results show Biden 43%, Trump 40%. With the margin of error, it’s basically a dead heat. Significantly, however, 9% responded “other,” while 9% answered “not sure,” for 18% of the total vote.”
  • When three major third-party and independent challengers - Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., former Harvard University professor Cornell R. West, and Green Party standard-bearer Jill Stein, are included, “Biden and Trump are dead even at 38% each, with Kennedy taking 11%, West 2%, and Stein 1%. “Other” in this case falls to just 2%, while “not sure” remains at 9%.”
  • TIPP concludes: “Data suggest, once again, that Biden is hurt more than Trump by the presence of the non-major-party challengers, but especially Kennedy. Biden loses five percentage points of the vote, versus just two percentage points for Trump, with Kennedy in the race.”

Figure 1: 2024 Voting Intentions with Third-Party Candidates on Ballot

Keep reading...Show less