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More detail on the private sector regular pay numbers

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  • Looking into more detail at the private sector regular pay numbers - there was a small DOWNward revision to the February number from 5.9%Y/Y to 5.8%Y/Y and the March number single month print came in at 5.9%Y/Y. This means that the Y/Y print in the 3-months to March was 5.854% - so as close as possibly to rounding down to 5.8%.
  • However, looking at the sectoral changes there are still no huge increases in sectors such as the "Wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants" which is the lowest paid sector and hence should see the most impact from the National Living Wage increases.
  • It therefore looks as though we might still have to wait until next month to get more confirmation over the scale of those NLW increases on the wider pay series.
  • The one caveat is when looking at the 3m/3m annualised momentum - which is picking up again. This is a little concerning - but was always expected to pick up again heading into April as we get closer to the NLW increases. The question is will this pick up further next month (as we noted above it doesnt look as though NLW changes are having much notable impact across the rest of the data yet)?
  • However, we would still read this data as marginally increasing the probability of a June first cut - there is another hurdle cleared here. The data was 0.1ppt, and almost 0.2ppt lower than the BOE's forecast.

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  • Looking into more detail at the private sector regular pay numbers - there was a small DOWNward revision to the February number from 5.9%Y/Y to 5.8%Y/Y and the March number single month print came in at 5.9%Y/Y. This means that the Y/Y print in the 3-months to March was 5.854% - so as close as possibly to rounding down to 5.8%.
  • However, looking at the sectoral changes there are still no huge increases in sectors such as the "Wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants" which is the lowest paid sector and hence should see the most impact from the National Living Wage increases.
  • It therefore looks as though we might still have to wait until next month to get more confirmation over the scale of those NLW increases on the wider pay series.
  • The one caveat is when looking at the 3m/3m annualised momentum - which is picking up again. This is a little concerning - but was always expected to pick up again heading into April as we get closer to the NLW increases. The question is will this pick up further next month (as we noted above it doesnt look as though NLW changes are having much notable impact across the rest of the data yet)?
  • However, we would still read this data as marginally increasing the probability of a June first cut - there is another hurdle cleared here. The data was 0.1ppt, and almost 0.2ppt lower than the BOE's forecast.