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More focus on PMIs than last month

EUROPEAN DATA

The flash PMIs from France, Germany, the Eurozone and the UK are due out this morning between 8:15-9:30BST.

  • There will probably be more focus on this month's release than last month. Covid-19 cases have picked up across both the Eurozone and the UK more substantially over the past month whereas the rise of the second wave was only beginning to tick up at the time of last month's survey.
  • To have a market impact we probably still need a decent surprise, however, and any reaction would be asymmetric. An upside surprise could more easily be discounted than a big downside surprise. To see a decent move we probably need to see the manufacturing PMIs move back below 50 and services PMIs to drop around four points.

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