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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMorgan Stanley On BCRP Decision, Due At 0000BST/1900ET
Morgan Stanley Prefer Buying PeruGB Aug 2032s Vs UST May 2032s
- MS economists expect another 25bp hike to 7.00%. Policy-makers will remain attentive to new information, including economic activity data and inflation expectations, to decide the next monetary policy steps. Food inflation continues to keep headline inflation elevated while fuel prices are showing some signs of relief, due to lower international oil prices.
- Looking at forward-implied yields in PEN shows the market pricing a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting followed by a chance of one more 25bp hike. MS economists are calling for a last hike in this next meeting as real rates ex ante (rates minus inflation expectations 12 months ahead) would be far into the contractionary side, nearing 2%.
- MS continue to prefer buying PeruGB Aug 2032s versus UST May 2032s as growth remains weak in Peru while US data remain resilient. The yield spread remains elevated on a historical basis.
- For PEN, BCRP FX swaps maturities are expected to accelerate, which is likely to add some pressure to the currency during the month of October, especially as the BCRP winds down its hiking cycle.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.