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Morgan Stanley Raised Brent Forecast Amid Tighter Supplies

OIL

Morgan Stanley has raised the Brent price forecast for 2024 and 2025 amid tighter than expected supplies after recent inventory declines.

  • Q1 increased by $2.5/bbl to $82.50/bbl and Q4 raised by $5/bbl to $80/bbl.
  • H2 2025 forecast has been raised by $5/bbl to $77.50.
  • Oil inventories have drawn by about 1.5mb/d in January counter to previous forecasts due to better-than-expected OPEC cut compliance and US output curtailed by cold weather. The non-OPEC growth forecast was cut from 1.7mb/d to 1.5mb/d.
  • The demand growth forecast was raised from 1.3m b/d to 1.5m b/d with stronger jet fuel demand this summer from upwards revisions to flight schedules.

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