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Morgan Stanley Raises Crude Price Forecast Amid Geopolitical Risks

OIL

Morgan Stanley has lifted its crude price forecast for this year on the back of geopolitical risks, the bank said in a note, cited by Bloomberg.

  • The bank wrote: “when it comes to geopolitical risk, however, even small probabilities can add several dollars to oil prices.”
  • The bank sees some downside to Russian production, which would together with OPEC cuts and a seasonal increase in demand, tighten oil markets in 2Q and 3Q.
  • The bank lifted the 2Q 2024 Brent price forecast to $92/bbl, from $87.50/bbl previously.
  • It further raised Brent 3Q prices to $94/bbl from $90/bbl previously, 4Q24 Brent to $87.50/bbl, from $85/bbl previously.
  • Brent 1Q 2025 and 2Q 2024 prices have been raised by $2.50/bbl to $82.50/bbl.
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