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Morgan Stanley Raises Crude Price Forecast Amid Geopolitical Risks

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Morgan Stanley has lifted its crude price forecast for this year on the back of geopolitical risks, the bank said in a note, cited by Bloomberg.

  • The bank wrote: “when it comes to geopolitical risk, however, even small probabilities can add several dollars to oil prices.”
  • The bank sees some downside to Russian production, which would together with OPEC cuts and a seasonal increase in demand, tighten oil markets in 2Q and 3Q.
  • The bank lifted the 2Q 2024 Brent price forecast to $92/bbl, from $87.50/bbl previously.
  • It further raised Brent 3Q prices to $94/bbl from $90/bbl previously, 4Q24 Brent to $87.50/bbl, from $85/bbl previously.
  • Brent 1Q 2025 and 2Q 2024 prices have been raised by $2.50/bbl to $82.50/bbl.
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Morgan Stanley has lifted its crude price forecast for this year on the back of geopolitical risks, the bank said in a note, cited by Bloomberg.

  • The bank wrote: “when it comes to geopolitical risk, however, even small probabilities can add several dollars to oil prices.”
  • The bank sees some downside to Russian production, which would together with OPEC cuts and a seasonal increase in demand, tighten oil markets in 2Q and 3Q.
  • The bank lifted the 2Q 2024 Brent price forecast to $92/bbl, from $87.50/bbl previously.
  • It further raised Brent 3Q prices to $94/bbl from $90/bbl previously, 4Q24 Brent to $87.50/bbl, from $85/bbl previously.
  • Brent 1Q 2025 and 2Q 2024 prices have been raised by $2.50/bbl to $82.50/bbl.