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Morgan Stanley Raises This Year’s Oil Demand Growth To 1.9mbpd

OIL

Morgan Stanley has raised its global oil demand growth estimate for this year by around 36% to 1.9mbpd, given growing momentum in China's reopening and a recovery in aviation.

  • "Mobility indicators for China, such as congestion, have been rising steadily," while "flight schedules have firmed-up the outlook for jet fuel demand," the bank said.
  • The bank previously estimated global oil demand to grow 1.4mbpd this year.
  • The Brent oil price forecast for the second half of this year has been revised down to $90-100/bbl, from $100-110/bbl previously forecast, as stronger than expected supply from Russia is assumed to lead to a smaller than previously expected deficit for that period.
  • The bank also forecasts oil prices lower during 4Q and 2024 to $95/bbl, from $110/bbl previously.
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