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Morning Summary: 2023 Breakeven Inflation Rises Above 3.5%

POLAND
  • Covid daily new cases continue to drop with the 7D SMA falling from 13,900 to 8,300 in the 7 days.
  • PM Mateusz Morawiecki announced the gradual reopening of Poland economy yesterday: Poland will reopen shopping malls with some restrictions on May 4 and hotels on May 8, and follow up with allowing outdoor dining from May 15 and indoor dining from May 29.
  • While several NBP policymakers mentioned that the spike in inflation is only expected to be 'temporary' and that inflationary pressures should start to ease in the second half of this year, the 2023 breakeven inflation rose above the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band this week, confirming that the inflationary pressure may remain firm longer than what NBP policymakers expect.
  • Today, The European Court of Justice may hand down another crucial verdict in Poland's decade-long saga over foreign-currency mortgages, potentially weakening the position of banks in tens of thousands of court battles against borrowers (BBG).
  • Next preliminary CPI print will come out on April 30; policymakers have recently mentioned several times that inflationary pressures could continue to rise in the short term and that April CPI could reach 4% YoY in April.
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