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Morning Summary: CNB Must Stay 'Vigilant' On Inflation

CZECHIA
  • Covid cases continue to gradually decrease with the 7D SMA of daily new cases dropping to 2,300 (and down from 12,300 from its early March highs). Therefore, Czech Republic will start to gradually lift restrictions on Monday (May 3), reopening shops, markets and some services.
  • Czech central bank deputy governor Marek Mora mentioned in a podcast interview yesterday that there are still lots of uncertainties over the economic recovery and that the risk of rising inflationary pressures is not negligible. The CNB must be 'vigilant', but Mora confirms that the inflation risk is still manageable.
  • Core and headline CPI were still sitting within the 1%/3% CNB tolerance band in March at 2.6% and 2.3%, respectively, but could increase sharply in April and May due to the surge in fuel prices.
  • Next important data to watch in the first estimates in Q1 GDP on April 30, which is expected to contract by -2.6% YoY following a 4.8% drop in Q4 2020.
  • Despite the significant drop in the economic activity in the first quarter (due to the worsening Covid19 situation), economists are still expecting Czech GDP to increase by up to 4% in 2021.
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