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Morning Summary: CPI Inflation Could Reach 4% YoY In April

POLAND
  • Covid daily new cases continue to drop with the 7D SMA falling from 15,500 to 9,600 in the 7 days. Polish officials will present a detailed plan for reopening sectors such as restaurants and hotels on Wednesday.
  • Poland is set to ratify the European Union's pandemic stimulus plan as the threat of losing billions of euros of aid galvanizes support in parliament to stop a rift within the government from torpedoing the deal (BBG).
  • Yesterday, unemployment rate fell by 0.1 ppt to 6.4% in March (as expected) according to the Labor Ministry.
  • Next important economic data to watch is the preliminary CPI coming out on April 30; policymakers have recently mentioned several times that inflationary pressures could continue to rise in the short term and that CPI inflation could reach 4% YoY in April (diverging significantly from the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band).
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