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Morning Summary: Debate About Monetary Tightening Will Start in August

CZECHIA
  • Covid cases continue to drop with the 7D SMA of daily new cases falling from 4,200 to 2,800 in the past week (and down from 12,300 from its early March highs). Health Minister Petr Arenberger mentioned on CNN Prima News yesterday that the country is heading towards a reopening of non-essential shops on May 3 (at the latest).
  • Russia will not accept ultimatums from Czech Republic (concerning the diplomatic spat) and will summon the Czech ambassador to the Foreign Ministry today for a 'concrete conversation' (RIA/BBG). Since the start of the week, escalating tensions between Czech Republic and Russia have not been impacting Czech asset prices.
  • CNB Governor Jiri Rusnok mentioned in an interview yesterday that policymakers' debate about monetary tightening will probably begin at the August meeting'; policymakers in the CEE region are likely to keep financial conditions extremely loose longer than previously anticipated due to the worsening Covid situation in Q1. The median forecast expects CNB to rise its benchmark 2W repo rate to 0.50% by the end of the year (from current 0.25%).
  • Finance ministry still remains more optimistic than CNB in its growth projections; FinMin expects GDP growth to increase by 3.1% in 2021 (vs. 2.2% for CNB).
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