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Morning Summary: Inflation Pressures Steepen The Term Structure

HUNGARY
  • Covid daily new cases continue to decrease with the 7D SMA falling below 1,100 (lowest level since end of January), down from 9,300 (March 26 high) and from 1,500 the previous week. The number of people who received at least one dose of the Covid vaccines is about to reach 4.5mil in the coming days (45% of the population).
  • After April inflation surged to 5.1%, its highest level since 2012 and exceeding the 4.8% median estimate in Bloomberg, NBH policymakers said that the next central bank's inflation report in June will be 'key' for assessing the inflationary impact on the economy. Policymakers will certainly use appropriate tools in case inflation starts to persist and constantly overshoot estimates.
  • Yesterday, the NBH is expected to keep its 1W deposit rate steady at 0.75% at its weekly meeting.
  • Next economic data to watch is Q1 GDP on May 18, which is expected to decrease by -3.7% YoY.
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