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Morning Summary:  Inflation Risks Are 'Spiraling Out of Control' - Former NBP Chief

POLAND
  • Covid daily new cases continue to drop with the 7D SMA falling from 20,400 to 15,000 in the 7 days.
  • In the past few weeks, we heard NBP governor Adam Glapiński and other Polish policymakers confirming that the spike in inflation was only going to be 'temporary' and that inflationary pressures should ease in the second half of 2021.However, former NBP governor Marek Belka said at an online forum yesterday that inflation risks are 'spiraling out of control' and that the NBP is 'consciously seeking to stoke CPI'.
  • MPC member Lukasz Hardt told a webinar that CPI inflation is 'very likely' to hit 4% YoY in April after surging from 2.4% to 3.2% in March. Hardt also mentioned that Poland should 'absolutely' avoid cutting interest rate below zero percent.
  • With the 10Y yield trading at 1.53%, Poland currently offers the lowest 10Y real yield among the EM world, -2.37% (adjusted by core CPI) and -1.67% (adjusted by headline).
  • This morning (9am London time), economic data to watch are the annual growth in average gross wages and employment and PPI.
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