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Morning Summary: NBH To Hold Its Benchmark Rate Steady At 0.6% on April 27

HUNGARY
  • Covid daily new cases continue to decrease with the 7D SMA falling to 2,700, down from 9,300 (March 26 high) and from 4,300 the previous week. As the vaccination campaign accelerates, officials allowed cafes and bars to reopen terraces over the weekend. Hungarian government will give its regular update on Covid data at 10.15am (London time).
  • PM Orban also mentioned on State Radio last week that Hungary may offer vaccine for citizens living abroad.
  • The significant fall in Covid cases combined with the acceleration in the vaccination programme should give a boost in the April business surveys. We saw that Hungary has been lagging its CEE peers in the past few months; while manufacturing PMIs in Czech Republic and Poland have followed the global PMI trend (Czech PMI rose to 58 in March, its highest level since the beginning of 2018), Hungary mfg. PMI was still standing below the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. April update of Hungary mfg. PMI will come out on May 3.
  • This week, NBH will hold its monthly monetary policy meeting on April 27 and is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 0.6%.
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