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Mortgage Applications Offer Green Shoots For Bottom Of Housing Downturn

US DATA
  • Mortgage applications surged 28% higher in the first full week of the year to Jan 13 (refis 34%, purchases 25%), compared to the prior week that included the New Year’s holiday observance.
  • That said, whilst there may have been a holiday distortion to prior data, it followed a 1.2% increase in composite applications rather than a heavy decline, suggesting a more genuine improvement in housing activity even if activity levels remain extremely depressed [see purchase applications, green line below]. It is however just one week of increase.
  • Mortgage rates are a big reason, with the average 30Y rate down another 19bps to 6.23%, the lowest since Sep'22 and about 1pp below the peak last fall.
  • MBA’s Fratantoni: “As we enter the beginning of the spring buying season, lower mortgage rates and more homes on the market will help affordability for first-time homebuyers.”


MBA 30Y rate (white), 10Y Tsy yield (pink) and level of purchase applications (green)Source: Bloomberg

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