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Mortgage Rates Bounce, Affordability Slumps But Delinquencies At Record Lows

US DATA
  • Freddie Mac 30Y mortgage rate bounces 23bps to 5.22% as volatility continues after surprise 31bp decline to 4.99% last week in what was the lowest since early April. Still off from a peak of 5.81% in late June (rates vs very long end Tsys in chart below).
  • Freddie Mac sees recent data suggesting the housing is market stabilizing and see prices continuing to rise but at a slower pace for the rest of summer.
  • Separately, NAR homebuyer affordability slumped in Q2 to a level just above what sees the national median income family being able to a median-priced home, with the first-time buyer component the lowest since 3Q06.
  • There is no sign of financial stress in MBA mortgage delinquencies though, falling to a record low of 3.64% in Q2 on 1-to-4 unit properties (data back to 1979). It’s down from 4.11% in Q1, a pandemic peak of 8.22% 2Q20 and surpasses the pre-pandemic low of 3.77% from 4Q19.

Freddie Mac 30Y mortgage rate (yellow) vs MBA 30Y (green) and 30Y Tsy yield (pink)Source: Bloomberg


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