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NBP: Most Expect Governor To Stick With Hawkish Rhetoric During Presser (1/2)

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Below we summarise sell-side views released after the publication of the NBP's rate decision and post-MPC statement and ahead of today's press conference with Governor Adam Glapinski (14:00GMT/15:00CET). With the statement seen as more hawkish than the previous one, as the Council decided to drop/tone down several references to disinflationary factors, most analysts expect the Governor to maintain the hawkish tone of his comments later today, even as several of his colleagues voiced dissenting opinions in recent weeks.

  • Alior Bank note that the statement may be interpreted as hawkish and supporting the rhetoric from December. They still expect the NBP to cut rates in June 2025.
  • Bank Pocztowy write that below-forecast inflation did not make any impression on the MPC, with the statement suggesting that the panel remains wary of inflation consolidating at elevated levels for longer. In their view, the MPC could start discussing rate cuts in March but monetary policy action should only take place at the turn of 1H/2H25 at the earliest.
  • BGK write that the statement was rather laconic and fits in less than two pages. They believe that Joanna Tyrowicz again sought a 200bp hike, to no avail, while no other motions were voted on. They warn that history teaches that one should not expect the Council to have a well thought-out and stable position, which is why they will be looking out for a confirmation of the hawkish tilt after next month's meeting. They do not expect any changes to the Governor's hawkish rhetoric today.
  • BOS Bank flag "slight modifications" to the statement coupled with a "wait-and-see" stance and the assessment that inflation should return to the target in the medium term. While the tone of the statement has become marginally more hawkish, the key message about the eventual return to the inflation target remained unchanged. They see the tweaks to the statement as an expectations management tactic intended to lower expectations of near-term rate cuts and de-emphasise the importance of the March MPC meeting, which has been perceived as the first possible moment for a rate-cut debate. Citing high volatility of the Governor's rhetoric, they note that paradoxically, it cannot be ruled out that he corrects his messaging on longer-term outlook during today's presser (e.g. by flagging dissenting views of some members). They expect three 25bp rate cuts this year in July, September and November.
  • Confederation Lewiatan Chief Economist Mariusz Zielonka said that "we are making big steps towards the anticipated rate cut." The business lobby expects the NBP to lower rates by the end of 1Q25, initially by 25bp.
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Below we summarise sell-side views released after the publication of the NBP's rate decision and post-MPC statement and ahead of today's press conference with Governor Adam Glapinski (14:00GMT/15:00CET). With the statement seen as more hawkish than the previous one, as the Council decided to drop/tone down several references to disinflationary factors, most analysts expect the Governor to maintain the hawkish tone of his comments later today, even as several of his colleagues voiced dissenting opinions in recent weeks.

  • Alior Bank note that the statement may be interpreted as hawkish and supporting the rhetoric from December. They still expect the NBP to cut rates in June 2025.
  • Bank Pocztowy write that below-forecast inflation did not make any impression on the MPC, with the statement suggesting that the panel remains wary of inflation consolidating at elevated levels for longer. In their view, the MPC could start discussing rate cuts in March but monetary policy action should only take place at the turn of 1H/2H25 at the earliest.
  • BGK write that the statement was rather laconic and fits in less than two pages. They believe that Joanna Tyrowicz again sought a 200bp hike, to no avail, while no other motions were voted on. They warn that history teaches that one should not expect the Council to have a well thought-out and stable position, which is why they will be looking out for a confirmation of the hawkish tilt after next month's meeting. They do not expect any changes to the Governor's hawkish rhetoric today.
  • BOS Bank flag "slight modifications" to the statement coupled with a "wait-and-see" stance and the assessment that inflation should return to the target in the medium term. While the tone of the statement has become marginally more hawkish, the key message about the eventual return to the inflation target remained unchanged. They see the tweaks to the statement as an expectations management tactic intended to lower expectations of near-term rate cuts and de-emphasise the importance of the March MPC meeting, which has been perceived as the first possible moment for a rate-cut debate. Citing high volatility of the Governor's rhetoric, they note that paradoxically, it cannot be ruled out that he corrects his messaging on longer-term outlook during today's presser (e.g. by flagging dissenting views of some members). They expect three 25bp rate cuts this year in July, September and November.
  • Confederation Lewiatan Chief Economist Mariusz Zielonka said that "we are making big steps towards the anticipated rate cut." The business lobby expects the NBP to lower rates by the end of 1Q25, initially by 25bp.