Moves Away From Cycle Lows, Central Banks Under Microscope

The divergence in monetary policy outlooks continues to be eyed as an important driver of AUD/NZD. CBA's Aird said Monday that the RBA may ditch plans to taper asset purchases at August meeting owing to the prolonged lockdown in Sydney, while the AFR circulated an opinion piece largely reflecting this logic. Across the Tasman, last week's boost to RBNZ tightening wagers has been partially unwound despite lacklustre local news flow, with the OIS strip now pricing in a ~68% chance of a 25bp hike in August, down from ~79% seen yesterday and ~88% last Friday.

• Australia's ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence fell to 104.3 from 110.0 prior, as "the lockdown in Sydney was tightened and extended and another lockdown was imposed in Melbourne."
• Looking ahead, the RBA will release minutes from their most recent monetary policy meeting later today.
• AUD/NZD plunged to a fresh cycle low on Monday, but then ground away from worst levels and finished in positive territory. The pair has extended gains today and now sits +15 pips at NZ$1.0591, with bulls looking to take out Jul 15 high of NZ$1.0661. Conversely, a retreat under yesterday's low of NZ$1.0553 would turn focus to Feb 3 low of NZ$1.0541, the next key layer of support.