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MPC Members Comment On Interest-Rate Outlook

POLAND
  • NBP's Ludwik Kotecki told PAP news wires that interest rates should not be lowered too quickly "in [his] baseline scenario." The official added that announcing a rate pause for the whole year is "very careless and hence unfortunate." In his view, if "factors of uncertainty (...) were to materialise" he would "see a risk of rate hikes, but if not - then maybe in the second half of the year may be room for slight rate cuts, very slightly." Kotecki noted that the MPC is not unanimous at the moment and is not convinced that monetary policy should stay unchanged for the next 10 months.
  • Another MPC member Cezary Kochalski told Bloomberg that a small rate cut is possible later this year if inflation remains subdued, but steady policy remains the most likely scenario. Still, he would not rule out a minor adjustment if there is certainty that "reaching the inflation target in the medium term is not at risk."
  • Elsewhere, MPC's Ireneusz Dabrowski told Parkiet that "stable rates are the most probably scenario" for this year," with the odds of a cut seen below 50%, with the option of a hike also on the table. Dabrowski was previously perceived as the most dovish MPC member, but his rhetoric has changed notably over the past few months.
  • Poland scrambled its fighter jets in reaction to a Russian airstrike on several Ukrainian cities, including Lviv and Kyiv.
  • Poland's January CPI data will cross the wires at the top of the hour.
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