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MPC's Kotecki Says Weak Growth Momentum Could Lead Him To Drop Rate-Hike Bias

POLAND
  • NBP Governor Adam Glapinski struck some optimistic notes during his press conference after the Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates unchanged. He told reporters that the central bank's macroeconomic forecast is being fully realised, inflation is expected to keep falling, while Poland's economy is headed for a soft landing. The official emphasised that the MPC has not formally ended its tightening cycle and stands ready to resume rate hikes if unexpected shocks disrupt the downward trajectory of inflation. However, if inflation eases below +10% Y/Y (which may happen in September) and staff analyses show that this trend will continue in coming quarters, the MPC could consider lowering interest rates.
  • Speaking at a financial forum this morning, MPC's Ludwik Kotecki appeared to be moderating his hawkish views amid signs of weakness in the economy. Kotecki said that the NBP's current growth forecasts might be too optimistic and "if signals of weaker growth are confirmed in the July projection, it may change [his] view on rates to flat - and [he'll] no longer demand increases." At the same time, he reaffirmed his opposition to any discussion of rate cuts at this stage as inflation remains way too far from the target.
  • Polish markets are closed as the country observes a public holiday.
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