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MPs Initiate Probe Into NBP Gov, Two MPC Members Suggest Rates Will Stay On Hold This Year

POLAND
  • The governing coalition doubled down on its efforts to hold the previous administration to account for various alleged wrongdoings, as security services raided the homes of multiple former Justice Ministry officials allegedly implicated in an embezzlement scheme, while lawmakers formally filed a motion to put NBP Governor Adam Glapinski on trial. The motion signed by 191 out of 460 MPs will initially trigger a probe by a parliamentary committee to determine if the case should be brought to the Tribunal of State. The NBP's Management Board held a press conference and issued a statement to decry the alleged "attempt to break the independence of the Polish central bank." Separately, Bloomberg circulated a source report pointing to the discontent with the way in which Governor Glapinski has been managing the central bank among unidentified NBP insiders, some of whom accused him of running the NBP "as his own personal fiefdom."
  • MPC's Gabriela Maslowska told PAP newswire that barring the emergence of unpredictable factors, the discussion on interest-rate cuts could recommence in 2H2025 or early in the following year, given that the latest projection suggests that "inflation does not fall to the target until 2026." She added that rates will most likely stay put this year, albeit a hike at the end of 2024 cannot be entirely ruled out if inflation surprises to the upside. In her view, there is still some room for tolerable zloty appreciation.
  • Meanwhile, MPC's Iwona Duda told ISB news agency that she sees no room for interest-rate cuts this year, albeit such discussions may already take place at the end of 2024. She expects CPI inflation to print at around +2% Y/Y in March, with preliminary data coming up this Friday.
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