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MS: Expect Feb hike but then delay to November

BOE
  • “Given the guidance for further modest tightening, we expect - assuming the spread of Omicron is in decline by the time of the February meeting - another hike in February and the start of QT in March.”
  • “We expect another hike in February and the start of QT in March… The Omicron variant is a risk, and the MPC noted that they will reassess Covid developments in February.”
  • “Thereafter, we assume a slower pace of hikes - another one in November and just one in 2023 - given a slowdown in growth, easing of inflation pressures and the tightening impact of tax hikes and QT.”
  • “In a more bearish Omicron scenario of prolonged lockdown measures, we would expect a pause in February, with the MPC guiding to more hikes as soon as activity normalises. This would suggest a later start to QT, but a high chance that the Bank still delivers two hikes next year - likely in May and November, with QT starting in July... In the case of another lockdown and re-introduction of furlough, we would not expect a fresh round of QE.”
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