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MS On Core PCE Estimates After Surprise CPI Strength

  • Morgan Stanley preliminarily forecast core PCE at 0.29% in Jan from 0.17% in Dec (due the usual updates after PPI tomorrow).
  • In contrast to the booming 0.85% M/M print in the CPI supercore, they see core services ex housing pointing to 0.34% M/M from 0.29% prior.
  • “The acceleration in core PCE is aligned with our view of a bumpy path ahead. We think that sequential prints in 1Q24 will be overall higher than what we have seen in the last 6 months. This acceleration will be one factor delaying the decision to start cutting rates to June this year”

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