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MS still looking for 25bp hike today, but note that risk of 50bp has risen

BOE
  • "While we still expect a 25bp hike, recent currency volatility has increased risks of a larger hike given the imported nature of the inflation overshoot."
  • "Our call remains for a 25bp hike, with a high chance of two MPC members voting for a 50bp move (Mann and Saunders),and one voting for a hold (Cunliffe)."
  • "The clear risk is for a 50bp hike and guidance implying more 50bp hikes are coming – "further tightening in monetary policy is warranted", with the change of risks to inflation seen as two-sided to be skewed to the upside. Should this materialise, another 50bp hike would be likely in August. "
  • "To avoid changing the pace of tightening at a non-forecast meeting, the MPC could decide to go for a 25bp hike and the aforementioned policy guidance."
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