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MUFG Expect Uptick in Headline Inflation on Higher Medical Aid Prices

SOUTH AFRICA
  • MUFG expect headline (+5.7% y/y vs. BBG consensus +5.5%) and core (+4.9% y/y) to rise on higher medical aid inflation. Medical aid inflation has always been surveyed in February each year, however, COVID encouraged medical aid providers to slow down price increases and push out the timing of these increases.
  • Going forward, MUFG expect the adjustment in medical aid price survey timings to create another peak in CPI in February, though from here onwards disinflation should proceed for the rest of 2024.

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