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Muted Demand and High Storage Weigh on LNG Prices

LNG

LNG delivered ex-ship to northwest Europe in March was the lowest since June 6 at $7.59/mmbtu according to data from Spark Commodities. Asia prices also fell to multi month lows of 9.44$/mmbtu.

  • US LNG exports are still slightly more profitable to Asia over Europe with the netback for March at 6.04$/mmbtu to Asia and 5.96$/bmmbtu to Europe according to BNEF.
  • TTF front month has recovered slightly today after falling to the lowest since July at 25.625€/MWh yesterday amid high inventories, subdued demand with a warm February forecast and strong renewables generation.
  • LNG supplies so far this month have fallen 15% to 4.7bcm month on month due to Qatar shipment delays and low demand. European LNG sendout was down at 296mcm/d on Feb 11 compared to an average of 329mcm/d so far in Feb and around 430mcm/d this time last year.
  • Five more LNG vessels from the US have confirmed NW Europe as a destination for the rest of February while one Qatari vessel is headed for the region, according to Bloomberg ship-tracking. Most Russian arrivals this month are transshipped for delivery elsewhere.
  • A total of 38 arrivals are currently scheduled into NW Europe for February with 21 already arrived and with around 68% originating from the US.
    • TTF MAR 24 up 2.4% at 26.36€/MWh
    • NBP MAR 24 up 2.2% at 64.05p/th
    • JKM Mar 24 up 2.3% at 8.59$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Mar 24 unchanged at 0.25$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas MAR 24 up 0.2% at 1.77$/mmbtu


Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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