Free Trial

NAB Note AUD/USD Still Resides Below Fair Value Range

AUD

NAB note that “January was a positive month for both the AUD/USD and our AUD/USD model estimate. Bigger gains in spot (~2.5c vs 1.0c model) helped reduce some of the valuation gap, however the AUD/USD still ended the month around 4 cents undervalued and still well outside its fair value range.”

  • “Gains in the model’s estimate came from all three of its factors, with commodity prices the largest influence. AU/U.S. rate spreads widened during the month with the stronger than expected Australia Q4 CPI release a key driver, while higher base metals and gold plus a positive 2023 start for risk assets lifted the commodities and risk factors respectively.”
  • Their short-term fair value model points to AUD/USD fair value at $0.7470.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.