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Narrow Ranges As US Inflation Data Awaited, NZD Underperforms

FOREX
  • Intraday ranges in currency markets remained narrow amid Chinese New Year holidays and the close proximity to Tuesday’s US CPI release. Despite session fluctuations, the overall continued strength for major US equity benchmarks saw some early greenback strength reverse, tilting the USD index into very moderate negative territory as we approach the APAC crossover on Monday.
  • NOK and SEK remain the best performers so far Monday, rising around 0.5% against the greenback. NZD is among the weakest majors as markets trim the solid gains posted last week on the back of renewed hiking expectations from the RBNZ.
  • EUR sits marginally weaker Monday, slipping against most others in G10 as EUR/USD slippage extended off the 1.0806 highs into NY hours. EUR/USD made a brief attempt below Friday’s worst levels and initial intraday weak support at 1.0762, however, 1.0742 below has remained intact.
  • Despite the slightly lower US yields, USDJPY remains well supported on dips. 148.93 marked the intra-day low as NY sat down, before price action steadily grinded higher back towards the 2024 highs, located just above the 149.50 mark. Given the constructive technical tone, eyes will be on a move to 149.75, the Nov 22 high and then 150.78, the Nov 17 high.
  • While China remains out, New Zealand inflation expectations, UK labour and Swiss CPI highlight the early docket on Tuesday. All focus then turns to the release of US CPI where consensus puts core CPI inflation at 0.3% M/M in January with mild risk seen to the downside, for a very similar reading to December after Friday’s annual revisions.
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