Narrow/Weaker Range

Tsy futures hold weaker after the bell, maintaining narrow range since noon after see-sawing to new session lows (through overnight lows) late morning w/30YY tapping 3.2662% high, yield curves steeper/new highs (2s10s taps -29.564 high). Thin markets/whippy trade tied to lack of participants (London bank holiday) and limited data:

• US AUG. DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING INDEX AT -12.9 VS -22.6
• US AUG. DALLAS FED GENERAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT -12.9
• Tsys see-sawed on earlier ECB Lane comments:
  • "Our upcoming September monetary policy meeting will be the start of a new phase... In terms of execution, this new phase will consist of a meeting-by-meeting (MBM) approach to setting interest rates... As policy rates move away from the lower bound, the inherent flexibility of the MBM approach is better suited to calibrating monetary policy in a highly uncertain environment."
  • Rates rebounded on follow-up comment over smaller hikes "make it easier to correct course."
• Technicals for TYU2 at 117-00.5: outlook remains bearish and the contract has resumed its downtrend, breaching last week’s low of 117-03+ on Aug 24 / 25 low. This confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle and opens 116-11 next, the Jun 28 low. Further out, attention is on 116-02+, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance has been defined at 117-29+, Friday’s high. The 50-day EMA, at 118-28+ marks a firmer resistance.