Natgas Summary: TTF Eases Back

European TTF gas is easing back after a surged to the highest since 15 June to an intra-day high yesterday of €43.545/MWh with possible disruptions to global LNG supplies amid planned strike action in Australia. The risk adds to ongoing supply concerns from upcoming Norway maintenance and rising Russia tensions.

• TTF SEP 23 down -3.7% at 38.34€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -1.2% at 50.25€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.8% at 51.25€/MWh
• The Q1 2024 – Sep 23 spread is back from just below 20€/MWh at the start of this week to 15€/MWh and after falling as low as 12.7€/MWh in within day trading yesterday.
• In Australia, workers at Woodside and Chevron LNG platforms and facilities in Australia have voted to strike, threatening to disrupt LNG supply, meaning the workforce can cease operations with seven days’ notice. Australian Workers Union will take a decision based on two meetings set for Thursday and Tuesday. Exports from the targeted facilities account for around 10-11% of global capacity, an RBC note said.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated today at 330.1mcm/d ahead of an expected drop next week amid further maintenance works. An estimated 1.5bcm of production is expected to be offline during August, and 2.5bcm in September, with the main bulk of outages starting from 26 August according to an RBC note and Gassco remit data.
• Works at the UK’s Cygnus gas field have been extended by two days until 15 August.
• Total European gas in store is above the five year range up to 88.02% full on a 8 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 73.8%.
• German natural gas consumption last week increased by 0.34% week on week and stood 19% below the 2018-2021 average.
• Swiss hydropower reserves rose by 3.3 percentage points last week to 75.4% as of 7 August, widening the deficit to the long-term average to 2.2 percentage points.
• LNG sendout to Europe is back up to 319mcm/d on 8 August after falling to a low of 267mcm/d at the weekend.
• The global LNG market is expected to be undersupplied by 1.3m tonnes across H2 2023 according to ICIS.
• LNG tank stockpiles at import terminals in China could hit 90% in August, according to a note by the Qingneng Consultant.
• JKM-TTF Sep 23 up 0.4$/mmbtu at -1.35$/mmbtu
• JKM Sep 23 up 0.7% at 11.03$/mmbtu
• In the US, the latest EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending 4 Aug will be released this afternoon at 15:30BST. The expectation is for a build of +24bcf compared to a build of +14bcf last week and the seasonal normal of +38.6bcf.