Natgas Summary: TTF Remains Volatile

In volatile trading, European TTF gas pulled back from the high of 43.5€/MWH earlier in the week amid fears of global LNG supply disruption from potential strikes in Australia. The risk adds to ongoing supply concerns from upcoming Norway maintenance and ongoing Russia tensions despite high storage.

• •TTF SEP 23 down -0.2% at 36.97€/MWh
• •NBP SEP 23 up 0.5% at 94.72p/th
• •Talks are ongoing and further negotiations are scheduled for 15 Aug after workers at Woodside and Chevron LNG facilities in Australia earlier this week voted to strike. The action is a threat to about 10% of global LNG supplies with the potential for workforce to cease operations with seven days’ notice.
• •Australia’s Fair Work Commission said in an order dated Aug. 10 that the union could hold a ballot of employees to decide on industrial action.
• •Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated today at 325mcm/d ahead of an expected drop later this month amid further maintenance works. A Troll 17.5mcm/d capacity cut is due to end on 14 Aug, 2 days earlier than expected.
• •Total European gas storage is gradually rising towards the EU pre winter target with gas in store at 88.28% full on a 9 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 74.1%.
• •LNG sendout to Europe is back above 300mcm/d this week but supplies are still below levels seen this time last year after a steady decline since May.
• •US LNG exports are now more profitable to Europe in September, following price spikes in Europe during the week.
• •The US LNG netback to Europe for September is currently $8.32/MMBtu, compared to $7.14/MMBtu for Asia.
• •JKM-TTF Sep 23 down 0$/mmbtu at -0.92$/mmbtu
• •Japanese LNG storage was at 1.87m tonnes on 6 August, down by close to 0.5m tonnes compared to 7 August 2022, and nearly 1m tonnes lower compared to 31 August 2022.
• •Golden Pass’ LNG first train is expected to start service in July 2024, delayed from April 2024 previously scheduled.