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NATGAS: TTF at European Close: Reversal As Supply Fears Calm

NATGAS
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European gas swings back into negative territory as the market balances Middle East risks against solid stockpiles which are well above seasonal norms as well as relatively muted demand.

  • TTF NOV 24 down -1.2% at 38.8€/MWh
  • Prices were supported early in the session with Chevrons Tamar and Leviathon fields offline off Israel for prevention measures ahead of Iran’s strikes on Tuesday.
  • Chevron confirmed this morning London time that the fields were resuming production on Wednesday and were not impacted.
  • Traders are watching for any indication that buyers of Israeli fuel, such as Egypt, will turn to LNG markets for alternative cargoes if there are further disruptions.
  • Concerns about colder weather ahead, risks to Russian supplies via Ukraine, and ongoing maintenance in top supplier Norway have also added to gains.
  • Pipeline gas supplies to Europe are set to recover further while temperatures in NW Europe warm back above normal next week.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are set to recover further although nominated down at 277.9mcm/d today with an unplanned capacity reduced of 10.8mcm/d at Troll due to a compressor failure.
  • Investment fund net long positioning in ICE TTF futures continued to pull back in the week to Sept. 27 from the highs seen during August, according to the commitment of traders data.
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European gas swings back into negative territory as the market balances Middle East risks against solid stockpiles which are well above seasonal norms as well as relatively muted demand.

  • TTF NOV 24 down -1.2% at 38.8€/MWh
  • Prices were supported early in the session with Chevrons Tamar and Leviathon fields offline off Israel for prevention measures ahead of Iran’s strikes on Tuesday.
  • Chevron confirmed this morning London time that the fields were resuming production on Wednesday and were not impacted.
  • Traders are watching for any indication that buyers of Israeli fuel, such as Egypt, will turn to LNG markets for alternative cargoes if there are further disruptions.
  • Concerns about colder weather ahead, risks to Russian supplies via Ukraine, and ongoing maintenance in top supplier Norway have also added to gains.
  • Pipeline gas supplies to Europe are set to recover further while temperatures in NW Europe warm back above normal next week.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are set to recover further although nominated down at 277.9mcm/d today with an unplanned capacity reduced of 10.8mcm/d at Troll due to a compressor failure.
  • Investment fund net long positioning in ICE TTF futures continued to pull back in the week to Sept. 27 from the highs seen during August, according to the commitment of traders data.