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NATGAS: TTF Edges Lower Amid Mild Weather in NW Europe

NATGAS
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TTF front month is trading down from a high of €40.625/MWh on Friday with warm weather limiting demand while supply remains fairly stable. The situation in the Middle East isn’t deteriorating further while focus also remains on the future of Ukraine transit gas which is currently due to halt at year end.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast above normal in the coming week before drifting back to near normal in the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 315.7mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg with output limited by unplanned outages at Troll, Gullfaks and Oseberg all due to compressor failure. Gassco currently shows outages of 47.8mcm/d today falling to 28.6mcm/d tomorrow.
  • European LNG sendout was at 266mcm/d on Oct. 9, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 262mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.93% full on Oct. 12, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.8% with net injection rates back around normal.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara remain strong estimated at 65.8mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.1mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 238k on Oct. 11.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 1.1% at 39.45€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 0.8% at 40.35€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.9% at 38.32€/MWh
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TTF front month is trading down from a high of €40.625/MWh on Friday with warm weather limiting demand while supply remains fairly stable. The situation in the Middle East isn’t deteriorating further while focus also remains on the future of Ukraine transit gas which is currently due to halt at year end.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast above normal in the coming week before drifting back to near normal in the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 315.7mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg with output limited by unplanned outages at Troll, Gullfaks and Oseberg all due to compressor failure. Gassco currently shows outages of 47.8mcm/d today falling to 28.6mcm/d tomorrow.
  • European LNG sendout was at 266mcm/d on Oct. 9, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 262mcm/d over the previous week.
  • European gas storage was up to 94.93% full on Oct. 12, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 91.8% with net injection rates back around normal.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara remain strong estimated at 65.8mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.1mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 238k on Oct. 11.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 1.1% at 39.45€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 0.8% at 40.35€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.9% at 38.32€/MWh