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NATGAS: TTF Falls Towards Range Low Amid Easing Supply Concerns

NATGAS

TTF front month is falling towards the lower end of the recent range of €38.05/MWh as Norwegian supplies recover slightly and with an easing of supply risk sentiment.

  • Norway's Equinor has begun work to resume output at its Gullfaks C oil and gas platform in the North Sea after a shutdown on Sunday the company said on Tuesday.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe for today have been revised up to 326.9mcm/d from 324.0mcm/d this morning. 
  • The upcoming tightening of supply amid seasonal maintenance however remains supportive with Gassco showing capacity reductions of 23.4mcm/d today rising to around 43mcm/d on Aug 24 and a peak of nearly 189mcm/d on Sept. 2.
  • The premium due to the risk of an early halt to Ukraine gas transit flows has eased with no changes in physical flows so far but Ukrainian forces continue to advance into Russia's Kursk.
  • Goldman Sachs maintains its view that Russian gas flows through Ukraine will only halt from January 2025 - when the existing Ukraine gas transit agreement with Russia expires.
    • TTF SEP 24 down 1.8% at 39.13€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 2.5% at 41.89€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 2.1% at 40.5€/MWh

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