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NATGAS: TTF Resumes Gains Amid Supply Risks and with Colder Weekend Ahead

NATGAS
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TTF has resumed gains but still below a high of €36.77/MWh from last week as the market focuses on geopolitical and hurricane driven supply risks and with a brief cold spell expected in NW Europe this weekend.

  • Israel continued its major strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Tuesday. The UN has called for de-escalation, while Iran’s President Pezeshkian has said the attacks “cannot go unanswered”.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to fall below normal over the weekend before recovering back to near normal levels next week and through the first week of October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 274mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg, with a delayed start up at Asgard and Karsto following seasonal maintenance and unplanned outage at Sleipner due to compressor failure. Gassco shows outages of 66.8mcm/d today but expected to reduce from Friday.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is estimated up to 50.65mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was at 250mcm/d on Sept. 23, according to Bloomberg, in line with an average of 251mcm/d so far this month.
  • Small European gas storage injections continue taking stores to 93.74% of capacity on Sep 22, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 88.9%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 312k on Sep 24.
    • TTF OCT 24 up 2.6% at 36.35€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 2.2% at 37.47€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1.6% at 36.19€/MWh
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TTF has resumed gains but still below a high of €36.77/MWh from last week as the market focuses on geopolitical and hurricane driven supply risks and with a brief cold spell expected in NW Europe this weekend.

  • Israel continued its major strike on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Tuesday. The UN has called for de-escalation, while Iran’s President Pezeshkian has said the attacks “cannot go unanswered”.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to fall below normal over the weekend before recovering back to near normal levels next week and through the first week of October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated at 274mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg, with a delayed start up at Asgard and Karsto following seasonal maintenance and unplanned outage at Sleipner due to compressor failure. Gassco shows outages of 66.8mcm/d today but expected to reduce from Friday.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is estimated up to 50.65mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was at 250mcm/d on Sept. 23, according to Bloomberg, in line with an average of 251mcm/d so far this month.
  • Small European gas storage injections continue taking stores to 93.74% of capacity on Sep 22, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 88.9%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 312k on Sep 24.
    • TTF OCT 24 up 2.6% at 36.35€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 2.2% at 37.47€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1.6% at 36.19€/MWh