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NATGAS: TTF Stable Amid Near Normal Temperatures

NATGAS
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TTF remains stable but set for a net weekly decline with market focus still on weather and supply risk from Russia gas transit via Ukraine and LNG competition from Asia.

  • Temperatures across Europe are forecast to remain mild into the first week of December. NW Europe shows at or just above normal through the period although could dip lower in the second week of December.
  • Near normal withdrawals this week have reduced European gas storage down to 86.65% full on Nov. 27, according to GIE compared to the previous five year average of 88.9%.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha remain stable at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was stable on the day at 352mcm/d on Nov. 27, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 323mcm/d so far in November.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are at 327.5mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg, Gassco shows planned outages reducing available capacity by 13.9mcm/d today and increasing in the coming days to a peak of 40.1mcm/d on Dec. 3.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is 61.8mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 222k on Nov. 28.
    • TTF JAN 25 down 0.1% at 46.65€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 0.1% at 46.57€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.3% at 44.65€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 up 0.3% at 41.6€/MWh
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TTF remains stable but set for a net weekly decline with market focus still on weather and supply risk from Russia gas transit via Ukraine and LNG competition from Asia.

  • Temperatures across Europe are forecast to remain mild into the first week of December. NW Europe shows at or just above normal through the period although could dip lower in the second week of December.
  • Near normal withdrawals this week have reduced European gas storage down to 86.65% full on Nov. 27, according to GIE compared to the previous five year average of 88.9%.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha remain stable at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was stable on the day at 352mcm/d on Nov. 27, according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 323mcm/d so far in November.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are at 327.5mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg, Gassco shows planned outages reducing available capacity by 13.9mcm/d today and increasing in the coming days to a peak of 40.1mcm/d on Dec. 3.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is 61.8mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 222k on Nov. 28.
    • TTF JAN 25 down 0.1% at 46.65€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 0.1% at 46.57€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.3% at 44.65€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 up 0.3% at 41.6€/MWh