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National Bank Of Canada Brings Forward BOC Rate Hike Expectations

CANADA
  • National Bank of Canada now envisions first rate hike in October 2022 ahead of the prior estimation of January 2023.
  • Prior to the meeting National Bank had assumed the Governing board of the Bank of Canada might want to push back on 2022 rate hiking expectations given the unwavering accommodative stance of both the Fed and the ECB.
  • Against their predictions, the BOC appear content with global financial markets repricing for a 2022 lift-off. With a much-improved economic outlook from prior assessment, the central bank's statement clearly acknowledged the output gap closure in H2 2022 compared to previous guidance of 'into 2023'.
  • The Canadian Dollar continues to surge, registering session gains in the face of significant equity weakness. Moving average studies are in bear mode and the move continued pressure to the downside confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The pair is in close proximity to the 2017 lows and major pivot support at 1.2062.
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