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National Inflation Data Confirms Services Uptick, Energy Reversal

GERMAN DATA

German flash January HICP came in slightly below consensus on the yearly rate but in line on the monthly sequential print, at +3.1% Y/Y (vs +3.2% cons; +3.8% prior) and -0.2% M/M (vs -0.2% cons; +0.2% prior).

  • CPI printed slightly below analyst forecasts coming into the session at +2.9% Y/Y (vs +3.0% cons; +3.7 prior), with the NSA monthly rate a touch above expectations, at +0.2% M/M (vs +0.1% cons and prior). Both of those were in line with MNI's estimates following most of the state-level CPI prints this morning.
  • Core CPI (ex-energy/food) came in at +3.4% Y/Y (vs +3.5% prior).
  • As expected, the energy category partly reversed its base-effect induced rise from last month, deflating at -2.8% Y/Y (vs +7.7% prior), regardless of the recent CO2 price increase.
  • However, services inflation ticked up at +3.4% Y/Y (vs +3.2% prior), as suggested by earlier state-level data. This is in part due to the rise in restaurant VAT from January.
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