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National Inflation Data Confirms Services Uptick, Energy Reversal

GERMAN DATA
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German flash January HICP came in slightly below consensus on the yearly rate but in line on the monthly sequential print, at +3.1% Y/Y (vs +3.2% cons; +3.8% prior) and -0.2% M/M (vs -0.2% cons; +0.2% prior).

  • CPI printed slightly below analyst forecasts coming into the session at +2.9% Y/Y (vs +3.0% cons; +3.7 prior), with the NSA monthly rate a touch above expectations, at +0.2% M/M (vs +0.1% cons and prior). Both of those were in line with MNI's estimates following most of the state-level CPI prints this morning.
  • Core CPI (ex-energy/food) came in at +3.4% Y/Y (vs +3.5% prior).
  • As expected, the energy category partly reversed its base-effect induced rise from last month, deflating at -2.8% Y/Y (vs +7.7% prior), regardless of the recent CO2 price increase.
  • However, services inflation ticked up at +3.4% Y/Y (vs +3.2% prior), as suggested by earlier state-level data. This is in part due to the rise in restaurant VAT from January.
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German flash January HICP came in slightly below consensus on the yearly rate but in line on the monthly sequential print, at +3.1% Y/Y (vs +3.2% cons; +3.8% prior) and -0.2% M/M (vs -0.2% cons; +0.2% prior).

  • CPI printed slightly below analyst forecasts coming into the session at +2.9% Y/Y (vs +3.0% cons; +3.7 prior), with the NSA monthly rate a touch above expectations, at +0.2% M/M (vs +0.1% cons and prior). Both of those were in line with MNI's estimates following most of the state-level CPI prints this morning.
  • Core CPI (ex-energy/food) came in at +3.4% Y/Y (vs +3.5% prior).
  • As expected, the energy category partly reversed its base-effect induced rise from last month, deflating at -2.8% Y/Y (vs +7.7% prior), regardless of the recent CO2 price increase.
  • However, services inflation ticked up at +3.4% Y/Y (vs +3.2% prior), as suggested by earlier state-level data. This is in part due to the rise in restaurant VAT from January.