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NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Falls

NATGAS
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Henry Hub is weaker today and is down around 7% on the week. Pressure comes from a mild start to spring, causing the market to slash heating demand expectations.

  • US Natgas APR 25 down 0.3% at 4.1$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas MAY 25 down 0.4% at 4.17$/mmbtu
  • US gas rig count according to Baker Hughes: 100 (-1) - down 12 rigs, or 10.7% on the year.
  • Summer 2025 scenarios are mixed on gas-to-coal switching, which adds volatility to expected demand in power generation.
  • Lower 48 natural gas estimated demand continues lower and is down 0.98 bcf at 77 bcf/d, BNEF shows. NOAA average lower 48 temperatures forecast cooler today starting Mar. 20th through the 23rd dipping to at or below the 30-yr normal.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is down 200 mcf d/d to 15.19 bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • US domestic natural gas production is down 0.55 bcf/d to 107.1 bcf/d today compared to an average of 107.7 bcf/d so far in March, according to BNEF.
  • Export flows to Mexico are down 0.06 bcf/d today estimated at 6.53 bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • JPMorgan now assumes 15 Bcm/y of increased Russian natural gas flows starting in 2H25, following steps taken toward a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, according to an analyst note.
  • IEA analyst Greg Molnar says efforts to secure Ukraine peace agreement are unlikely to have an impact on Russian gas deliveries to Europe through the 2025 filling season.
  • South Korea has overtaken China as the second-largest importer of LNG for the month of March behind Japan, according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data.
  • BP will make its official Israel entry this month, as Socar continues its recent expansion and industry confidence in the region rises, MEES said.
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Henry Hub is weaker today and is down around 7% on the week. Pressure comes from a mild start to spring, causing the market to slash heating demand expectations.

  • US Natgas APR 25 down 0.3% at 4.1$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas MAY 25 down 0.4% at 4.17$/mmbtu
  • US gas rig count according to Baker Hughes: 100 (-1) - down 12 rigs, or 10.7% on the year.
  • Summer 2025 scenarios are mixed on gas-to-coal switching, which adds volatility to expected demand in power generation.
  • Lower 48 natural gas estimated demand continues lower and is down 0.98 bcf at 77 bcf/d, BNEF shows. NOAA average lower 48 temperatures forecast cooler today starting Mar. 20th through the 23rd dipping to at or below the 30-yr normal.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is down 200 mcf d/d to 15.19 bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • US domestic natural gas production is down 0.55 bcf/d to 107.1 bcf/d today compared to an average of 107.7 bcf/d so far in March, according to BNEF.
  • Export flows to Mexico are down 0.06 bcf/d today estimated at 6.53 bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • JPMorgan now assumes 15 Bcm/y of increased Russian natural gas flows starting in 2H25, following steps taken toward a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, according to an analyst note.
  • IEA analyst Greg Molnar says efforts to secure Ukraine peace agreement are unlikely to have an impact on Russian gas deliveries to Europe through the 2025 filling season.
  • South Korea has overtaken China as the second-largest importer of LNG for the month of March behind Japan, according to Bloomberg ship-tracking data.
  • BP will make its official Israel entry this month, as Socar continues its recent expansion and industry confidence in the region rises, MEES said.