Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Retreats

Front month Henry Hub has bounced back from an intra-day low of $1.589/mmbtu but is still trading lower today amid an upward revision in temperature forecasts and reduced flows to US LNG export terminals.

• US Natgas APR 24 down 1.4% at 1.64$/mmbtu
• US Natgas SEP 24 down 0.2% at 2.43$/mmbtu
• The NOAA 6-14 day forecasts showed temperatures above seasonal normal for the East Coast and the eastern part of the US Gulf Coast while the rest of the US is expected to see near normal to below normal temperatures.
• Lower 48 natural gas demand has eased back to 80.398bcf/d today but remains well above the five-year average of 75.616bcf/d.
• Feedgas deliveries to US LNG export terminals today are estimated at 13.145bcf/d, slightly below this month’s average of 13.209bcfd according to Bloomberg.
• Natural gas flows to the Freeport LNG terminal are today at 0.814bcf/d, indicating Train 1 and Train 2 are still offline for maintenance. Freeport supplies are still curtailed with works expected to run through April.
• US domestic natural gas production was today down to 99.64bcf/d according to Bloomberg, compared with an average of 100.631bcf/d so far this month.
• The impact on natural gas prices and charter rates has been limited in Q1 after LNG vessels stopped transiting the Suez Canal in mid-January according to IEA analyst Greg Molnar.
• Gains in Brazilian LNG prices have outpaced those in NW Europe, narrowing the discount to the TTF benchmark to the lowest since the Brazilian assessment has been launched on 1 February according to S&P Commodity Insights.