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EGBS: Natural Gas Rally Helping To Cap Upside In EGBs

EGBS
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The continued extension higher in natural gas prices will also be helping to cap rallies in EGBs, with TTF futures reaching E50/Mwh for the first time since Jan 3.

  • Our commodities team notes that the rally is supported by high gas storage withdrawals and concern to low winter stocks, as the IEA forecast a tight market in 2025 despite rising LNG supply.
  • Front month TTF has traded through the initial resistance levels with the short term bull trigger at the Jan. 2 high of €51/MWh.
  • 1- and 2-year Euro inflation swaps have moved away from intraday lows through the afternoon, but remain 3-4bps lower today. The 5y5y inflation swap is 1.7bps lower today at 2.0863%, down from last Tuesday’s multi-week high of 2.1587%.
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The continued extension higher in natural gas prices will also be helping to cap rallies in EGBs, with TTF futures reaching E50/Mwh for the first time since Jan 3.

  • Our commodities team notes that the rally is supported by high gas storage withdrawals and concern to low winter stocks, as the IEA forecast a tight market in 2025 despite rising LNG supply.
  • Front month TTF has traded through the initial resistance levels with the short term bull trigger at the Jan. 2 high of €51/MWh.
  • 1- and 2-year Euro inflation swaps have moved away from intraday lows through the afternoon, but remain 3-4bps lower today. The 5y5y inflation swap is 1.7bps lower today at 2.0863%, down from last Tuesday’s multi-week high of 2.1587%.