Natural Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Slides

Front month TTF has eased back to its lowest level since late-January, amid forecasts for slightly milder weather and ongoing high storage levels. This is outweighing the fall in Norwegian flows and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

• TTF MAR 24 down -1.9% at 27.66€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.6% at 28.2€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 321.1mcm/d.
• Mild temperatures are expected across most of Europe.
• European natural gas storage at 68.29% full on Feb 6 according to GIE data
• European gas storage is projected to finish the heating season above normal as withdrawal rates have held below normal since Jan 20.
• German natural gas consumption from households, small businesses and industry stood 6.7% below the 2018-2021 average in January, Bnetza data showed.
• Japan’s LNG demand is forecast to decline by 8% year on year this summer – April to September - to 27.4mn tons, according to BNEF.
• The global LNG market is likely to remain tight during 2024 amid higher demand from China and despite stable supply according to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne.
• A big discount in LNG prices to oil and a “huge discount” to diesel are boosting demand in new regions according to CEO of shipowner Flex LNG, Oystein Kalleklev.
• The arbitrage for US LNG cargoes to Northeast Asia is almost open via the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, which could signal a change in US cargo flows away from Europe and to Asia instead according to Spark Commodity data.
• Third and final train of the Arctic LNG project in Russia has been put on hold, although the second train is likely to be installed, according to Reuters citing stakeholder Total.