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NatWest Look For First Cut In September

FED

In addition to our 1122ET bullet on analyst view changes after today’s CPI:

  • NWM now expect a first 25bp cut in Sept vs Jun previously, followed by cuts in Nov and Dec.
  • They see “six additional 25bps cuts next year—reaching 3.0% by the end of Q3 2025 (instead of our earlier expectation for the end of Q1 2025).”
  • “While we wouldn’t fully rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, we feel a lot needs to happen (inflation surprises to the downside & growth/labor market dramatically slows) for officials to seriously consider a rate cut in just three months. If anything, throughout this cycle officials have erred heavily on the side of caution because the “transitory” fiasco has made officials determined not to be caught on the wrong side of the inflation story for the second time in the same cycle.”
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