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NBH Likely To Hike By 15bps On September 21

HUNGARY
  • Sell-side is split between 15bps and 30bps hike for the September 21 meeting as inflationary pressures remain firm in the CEE region (CPI inflation accelerated to 4.9% YoY in August).
  • Even though the inflationary pressures remain elevated, the uncertainty continues to rise due to a range of risk factors (fall/winter restrictions, China's Evergrande default, decelerating liquidity…).
  • Hence, hiking rates too aggressively could start to weigh on the economic recovery (15bps hike at each meeting until the end of the year seems more appropriate).
  • This morning, economic data showed that the current account deficit came in larger than expected at -775m EUR (vs. -471m EUR), down from a revised +177m EUR surplus.
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